White Papers

EQECAT experts have published a number of white papers addressing various topics relating to the sciences behind catastrophe modeling and natural disasters.

  • Government Insurance Risk Pools: A lifesaver or learning to swim?

    (PDF 188 KB)

    This paper, written by Gabriela Chávez-López, provides insight into government risk pools, the impact they may have in a country before and after an event, and will describe how they worked after an event has happened. The paper includes examples of government earthquake risk pools, how they were created and their value after an event.


  • A Consistent Cross-Border Seismic Hazard Model for Loss Estimation and Risk Management in Canada

    (PDF 604 KB)

    A case study in the transformation of national seismic hazard models intended for building code applications in Canada and the US to solve the problem of inconsistent seismic hazard methodologies, and resulting inconsistent ground motion hazard estimates, across the international border.

    The white paper was published in the proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering held in Lisbon, Portugal in September of 2012.

    Paul C. Thenhaus, Dr. Ken W. Campbell, Nitin Gupta, David F. Smith, and Dr. Mahmoud M. Khater authored the white paper.


  • A Consistent Cross-Border Seismic Hazard Model for Loss Estimation and Risk Management in Canada

    (PDF 65 KB)

    A case study in the transformation of national seismic hazard models intended for building code applications in Canada and the US to solve the problem of inconsistent seismic hazard methodologies, and resulting inconsistent ground motion hazard estimates, across the international border.

    The case study is from the European Seismological Commission 33rd General Assembly in Moscow, Russia

    Paul C. Thenhaus, Dr. Ken W. Campbell, Nitin Gupta, David F. Smith, and Dr. Mahmoud M. Khater authored the white paper.


  • Earthquake Clustering White Paper Part 2: Earthquake Aftershocks

    (PDF 534 KB)

    This white paper is the second of a 3-part series on the different contexts of earthquake clustering. The report focuses on earthquakes that cluster both spatially and temporally, with particular focus on aftershocks. The paper discusses aftershock properties and models, as well as ambiguities in identifying foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences.

    Aftershocks can be a significant source of economic loss, as demonstrated recently in New Zealand by the 2011 M6.1 aftershock of the 2010 M7.1 earthquake near Christchurch, but aftershocks are not routinely incorporated into hazard and loss analyses. The paper presents prospects for incorporating aftershocks into probabilistic hazard and modeled loss estimates.

    Paul C. Thenhaus, Dr. Kenneth W. Campbell, and Dr. Mahmoud M. Khater authored the white paper.


  • Earthquake Clustering White Paper Part 1: Global Earthquakes

    (PDF 2 MB)

    This white paper is the first of a 3-part series on earthquake clustering. The report reviews recent scientific research that indicates we are currently in a temporal global cluster of great and giant earthquake activity. Although perhaps half-way through this current cluster, based on historical precedent, we may not have yet seen the largest earthquake to occur.

    The purpose of this series is to provide perspectives on earthquake clustering in its various contexts and its implication to the seismic hazard.

    Paul C. Thenhaus, Dr. Kenneth W. Campbell, and Dr. Mahmoud M. Khater authored the white paper.


  • Natural Catastrophe Loss Modeling: The value of knowing how little you know

    (PDF 57 KB)

    Gabriela Chávez-López authored the paper that includes an introduction of major components of cat models, sources of common uncertainties in development and application of catastrophe loss models and areas for future research (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure).


  • Cumulative Absolute Velocity

    (PDF 662 KB)

    Dr. Ken Campbell and Yousef Bozorgnia present a ground motion prediction equation for the horizontal component of cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) based on the PEER-NGA strong motion database.


  • Activity of Catastrophic Windstorm Events in Europe in the 21st Century

    (PDF 469 KB)

    Using climate scenario data presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC1) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), EQECAT collaborated with experts at the Free University of Berlin to investigate the effects of climate change on extra-tropical windstorms in Europe.


  • North Atlantic Hurricane Near-Term Model

    (PDF 649 KB)

    This white paper provides a discussion of the AMO as the basis for EQECAT's near-term model, the affect of the AMO on annual average losses, and gives an overview of the methodology used to develop the near-term model.


  • Natural Hazards Damage and Financial Loss Modeling

    (PDF 432 KB)

    Natural hazards generate significant cumulative loss because they cover large geographical areas, a single event that can strike several countries. The settlements and impose financial issues involved in insurance and finance to quantify their exposure to such risks and in particular extreme cases. Stochastic modeling of losses provides decision makers the tools they need to simulate the complexity of the forms of existing coverage and the risk of ruin. The outline of the development of a stochastic model of floods are discussed in this white paper.