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World Experiencing Cycle of Giant Quakes
Learn more about temporal clustering of major earthquakes worldwide and their impact to the insurance and reinsurance industries in A.M. Best Media's interview of Paul Thenhaus.
Global Earthquake Clustering
Great Earthquakes - Seismic Map
Credit: standeyo.com
Seismologists and researchers have been studying recent great earthquakes and the possibilities they may be part of a cluster of global earthquakes. The M9.0 Tohoku Pacific Offshore Earthquake on March 11, 2011 is one of the most recent great earthquakes, and there have been three other quakes of magnitude 8.6 or greater worldwide in the past seven years.
Apparent global clustering of damaging earthquakes is raising concerns that our planet might experience even more catastrophic tremblors in the near future. EQECAT experts have been studying these events and have published their insights and perspectives, which are listed below.
Paul Thenhaus, Dr. Ken Campbell, and Dr. Mahmoud Khater authored a three-part series of white papers that provide perspectives on earthquake clustering in its various contexts and its implication to the seismic hazard.
- This first report discusses global earthquake clustering and is now available.
- The second report will examine the temporal and spatial clustering of aftershock sequences as they relate to mainshock earthquakes and will be published later this year.
- The final report will examine fault-based models of earthquake clustering, including the elements of Coulomb stress transfer and new “earthquake simulators” that are currently under development.
The second and third earthquake clustering white papers will be available at a later date and listed on this page upon publication.
Kate Stillwell authored an article that examines potential impacts earthquake clustering may have on the re/insurance industry. Ms. Stillwell advises, "Strategies and decisions for underwriting and pricing that are driven by tail risk need to be reconsidered."
EQECAT's scientists and researchers will continue to evaluate how the occurrence of great earthquakes affect insurance and reinsurance company portfolios and earthquake risk management.
Earthquake Clustering Publications
February 2012
White paper
Spatial and Temporal Earthquake Clustering: Part 2 - Earthquake Aftershocks
(PDF 534 KBB)
Part 2 of a 3-part series of white papers on earthquake clustering.
By Paul Thenhaus, Kenneth W. Campbell, and Dr. Mahmoud M. Khater
October 2011
White paper
Spatial and Temporal Earthquake Clustering: Part 1 - Global Earthquakes
(PDF 2 MB)
Part 1 of a 3-part series of white papers on earthquake clustering.
By Paul Thenhaus, Kenneth W. Campbell, and Dr. Mahmoud M. Khater
October 2011
Article
Global Clustering of Giant Earthquakes: A Revolution in Earthquake Risk Management?
(PDF 218 KB)
Article discussed the Earthquake Clustering white paper and the business implications for earthquake risk management for insurance and reinsurance portfolios.
By Kate Stillwell
January 2011
Special Report
2010 Earthquakes in Review: A Foundation for Understanding Risk
(PDF 2 MB)
EQECAT's special report by Kate Stillwell takes a retrospective look at earthquake events of 2010 and discusses the impact of catastrophic earthquakes and how they inform catastrophe models.
By Kate Stillwell
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