EQECAT Initial Estimates Of Insured Losses From Typhoon Fitow Expected At About ¥50 Billion (Approximately US $500 Million)
September 7, 2007
Oakland, California
Typhoon Fitow has made landfall in Shizuoka prefecture, Japan. Landfall was approximately 100 miles south and west of Tokyo, and maximum sustained winds at landfall were approximately 75 knots (88 miles per hour), a medium Category 1 storm.
Evaluations of this typhoon, based upon current meteorological information and analysis using the EQECAT Industry Exposure Database for Japan, produces a best estimate of the insured losses from this event to be around ¥50 billion (approximately US $500 million). Estimating loss levels for this type of lower intensity event span many uncertainties, and EQECAT expects that a credible range for insured losses to be less than ¥100 billion (approximately US $1 billion).
Specific uncertainties that are controlling the breadth of this range include:
- Relatively low wind speeds are expected through the area. The level of expected winds produce primarily incidental damage. However, regional- or micro- gusts can significantly increase the damage estimates.
- The area affected is a large metropolitan area. At its closest approach to Tokyo (Tokyo was about 30 miles from the 'center' of the storm) the maximum sustained winds still exceeded typhoon strength (sustained winds in excess of 65 knots.)
- There will be significant incidents of flooding damage from this event, especially since Fitow is still progressing along Honshu, with winds well below typhoon strength but bringing significant amounts of water and incipient loss exposure.
The above estimates of insured loss correspond to "economic" damage estimates approximately double the insured loss estimates (e.g., an expectation that economic damages will not exceed ¥200 billion). The bulk of the losses are expected to be to householder insurance.
EQECAT, Inc. provides state-of-the-art products and services to the global property and casualty insurance, reinsurance and financial markets. EQECAT is the technical leader and innovator of catastrophe risk management models that quantify exposure to a range of natural and man-made catastrophic risks.
Through its modeling software platform, WORLDCATenterprise, EQECAT enables clients to quantify and manage the potential financial impact of natural hazards. WORLDCATenterprise includes 181 natural hazard software models for 95 countries spanning six continents. These models are based upon innovative applications of the latest science, engineering expertise, claims and exposure data and advanced mathematics.
EQECAT, a subsidiary of ABSG Consulting Inc., was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
For more information, contact:
pr@eqecat.com