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Hurricane Isabel Affects North Carolina

September 18, 2003

(Oakland, CA) EQECAT estimates the insured loss for Hurricane Isabel to be in the $500 million to $1 billion range.

There is uncertainty in the projected winds and path for this storm. If Isabel takes a more easterly path after landfall than the consensus forecast calls for (e.g. moving northward along the west shore of Chesapeake Bay), the insured loss is likely to be toward the higher end of the range due to higher densities of population and property values. A more westerly path would likely result in a loss toward the lower end of the range.

Insured losses for Hurricane Floyd, which hit southern North Carolina in September 1999, were around $2 billion. Hurricane Isabel is likely to have less impact for several reasons:

• Lower density of population and property values in the Outer Banks area relative to the landfall area for Floyd.

• Somewhat lower winds (maximum sustained windspeed around 105-110 mph vs 115 for Floyd).

• Significantly less flooding*

*Hurricane Floyd brought as much as 15-20 inches of rain to parts of North Carolina, less than 2 weeks after Hurricane Dennis brought 6 or more inches to many of the same areas, and Floyd also brought several inches of rain to large areas in states farther north. Hurricane Isabel is forecast to bring 6-10 inches of rain to parts of North Carolina, but is forecast to move relatively quickly through the area (in northern Pennsylvania 24 hours after landfall) so is unlikely to have as much widespread impact.

For users of EQECAT catastrophe modeling software, this storm most closely resembles:

WCe version 3.4 and earlier: Storm ID 44967

WCe version 3.5 and later: Storm ID 42097