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Variability in Magnitude-Frequency Relationships in Southern California from Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard Source Models: Implications for Damage Estimations

It has become common practice in the last decade to use seismic hazard models to estimate damage and loss from earthquakes in urban areas. Critical assumptions regarding the seismic potential of the modeled faults represent one of the more significant uncertainties causing variability in the modeled damage and loss in areas such as California. Since most urban areas are plagued with very short earthquake records, it has become accepted practice to use geologic information, such as fault slip rate, to derive the seismic potential of these faults. The California seismic hazard source model (CDMG–USGS model) developed jointly by the California Division of Mines and Geology and the U.S. Geological Survey (Petersen et al. 1996) forms the basis for the damage estimates provided by many loss-modeling firms that support the engineering and insurance industries.

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