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EQECAT Natural Catastrophe Modelling -Japanese Earthquake Risk: Modeling the Tokai section of the Nankai-Suruga subduction zone

The Tokai ‘Fault’ is part of the Nankai-Suruga Subduction Zone, a very large seismic source affecting central and eastern Japan (see Figure 1). The Tokai portion of the fault is of great interest to the seismic risk community because it is a portion of the fault that is (a) capable of large magnitude events, (b) has a ‘near-term’ probability of rupture that is higher than the long-term because of the long gap since last rupture and (c) will likely affect major metropolitan areas in Japan, including Tokyo-to and Shizuoka-ken.

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