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Earthquake Time Dependency

New issues, and the EQECAT models

The Scientific American article is summarizing a longer article in Nature condemning the timepredictable model (a fundamental concept of time-dependent probability calculations) because it apparently didn't work in predicting the next Parkfield earthquake. Most scientists will agree that the Parkfield prediction was a failure, but that of itself doesn't condemn the general precepts of the time-predictable model (that the rate of strain build-up on a fault can be used to predict the time of occurrence of the next earthquake on that fault). Rather, it condemns the particular application of the time-predictable model for this particular fault segment and, possibly, points to an underestimation of the uncertainty that is involved in such predictions.

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