Rina Continues to Weaken, Heads to Yucatan Resorts

27-Oct-11

Rina, now a tropical storm, remains offshore of the Yucatan Coast about 70 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico. Rina is expected to continue to weaken as it moves closer to Cozumel and Cancun later today and early tomorrow morning. The National Hurricane Center estimates a very low probability that Rina will re-strengthen to a hurricane before passing the coastal resort areas. Storm surge and rainfall impacts are not expected to be significant.

At 12:00 pm EDT, Thursday, October 27, Rina was at latitude 19.5N, longitude 87.1W, 70 miles south of Cozumel with maximum winds of 70 mph and tropical storm force winds of 40 mph and greater extending up to 15 miles inland. The storm is moving north-northwest at 6 mph, and a slight increase in forward speed with a turn to the north is expected later today. The forecast track moves Rina very near Cozumel this evening and then near Cancun tomorrow (Friday) morning as the center crosses over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Drier air drawn into the storm's circulation and moderate upper level wind shear will continue inducing a weakening trend.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the east and north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Progresso. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts to 10 inches is expected over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Cozumel. Storm surge levels may reach 1 to 3 feet near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast.

Because of Rina's weakened state, its shallow circulation is not expected to be picked up by the advancing frontal trough. Instead, Rina is likely to slowly drift south in the northwestern Caribbean, while increasing shear levels degrade the system into a depression by Sunday.

EQECAT will continue to monitor this event and provide updates as more information becomes available.

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