Real-Time Reports
Receive catastrophe reports delivered to your Inbox or RSS feed. Sign up for:
Home > CatWatch Reports > Hurricane Earl Remains Category 4 Hurricane; Could Come Close to North Carolina's Outer Banks by Friday
Hurricane Earl Remains Category 4 Hurricane; Could Come Close to North Carolina's Outer Banks by Friday
31-Aug-10
Hurricane Earl continues to be a powerful category 4 hurricane. After battering the Caribbean Islands, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands and pulling away from Puerto Rico, Earl is heading closer to North Carolina’s outer banks. There is uncertainly around the hurricane’s track forecast, how close it will come to the US Mainland, and its potential impact.
As of August 31, 1800 UTC, Earl is approximately 170 miles east of Grand Turk Island (near latitude 21.5N and longitude 68.5W) and moving west-northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. Earl is expected to turn northwest and move over open waters, east of the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Most models are not expecting Earl to strike the US Mainland; however, some models bring Earl within 100-200 miles North Carolina’s outer banks by Friday (September 3) and the northeastern states by Saturday. The NHC 5-day storm track shows that Earl is likely to brush the northeastern US from North Carolina to the Northeastern states. Hurricane Earl is forecasted to remain an intense hurricane, and the intensity is expected to begin decreasing after 48 hours coincident with increased wind shear.
The expected track and intensity of Earl produce insured loss estimates of less than $100 million for the event, with the expected maximum onshore winds being category 1 or lower. The trajectory of Earl adds significant uncertainty in projecting potential losses, with nearer approaches to the US Mainland capable of producing larger losses. The forecasted tracks for Earl have trended to the west over the last several days. If this pattern continues and the eye of the storm passes much closer to the mainland, Earl could cause significantly more losses on shore. An evaluation of category 2 and 3 storms with tracks approximately 100 miles to the west of the current "best track" highlights the potential for Earl to cause losses approaching $0.5 billion.
By Thursday (September 3) the East Coast will experience huge waves and rough seas. Minimum rainfall accumulation of 1 to 3 inches to a maximum of 6 inches is expected in the southeastern Bahamas and The Turk and Caicos Islands.
EQECAT will continue to monitor this event and provide updates as more information becomes available.
Subscribe to CatWatch email alerts to received CatWatch Catastrophe Reports in your inbox.