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Home > CatWatch Reports > Hurricane Earl Intensifies to Category 4, Followed by Tropical Storm Fiona
Hurricane Earl Intensifies to Category 4, Followed by Tropical Storm Fiona
30-Aug-10
Hurricane Earl is now a category 4 hurricane and the second major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Earl crossed north of St. Martin and Anguilla in the Caribbean this morning and is heading in the west-northwest direction.
Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fiona has formed behind Hurricane Earl. As of August 29, 2100 UTC, Fiona is approximately 110 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico (near latitude 19.3N and longitude 64.7W) and moving west-northwest at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. Earl is expected to turn northwest tomorrow (August 31). It is important to note that the average error in a 4- to 5-day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles. There is uncertainty in the track forecast for Earl, and it is too early to ascertain with higher confidence whether it will hit the US Mainland. Nearly all models predict Earl will not make landfall in the US Mainland. However, the storm is expected to produce rough seas along the East Coast. The 5-day storm track shows that Earl is likely to brush the northeastern US from North Carolina to the Northeastern states.
Conditions are conducive to storm intensification. Warm seas are expected to intensify Earl during the next 48 hours and there is a 12% chance of it becoming a category 5 hurricane. If this happens, hurricane force winds will extend up to 70 miles from the center of the storm. Puerto Rico is likely to experience tropical storm winds this afternoon and possibly hurricane conditions this evening.
Storm surge is likely to raise water levels by 3 to 5 feet in coastal areas for regions impacted by hurricane force winds and 1 to 3 feet in areas experiencing tropical storm winds. The British Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico are expected to have a minimum of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with a maximum of 12 inches over areas of higher elevation.
EQECAT will continue to monitor this event and provide updates as more information becomes available.
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