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Catastrophe Updates

This page provides information related to recent hurricane and earthquake activity.

Hurricane Updates

Tropical Storm Noel
(October 29, 2007)

Tropical Storm Noel is hopefully signifying the end of hurricane season. Noel has just completed its traverse across Hispaniola and Cuba as a tropical storm or depression. Noel is expected to intensify to a Cat 1 storm as it traverses the Bahamas, with an expected path 50 miles to the west of Nassau, Bahamas.

The attached Google Earth file shows the projected track of Noel.

For the full EQECAT report, login in to EQECAT's CatWatch Page.

2007 Hurricane Forecasts

Opening day for the 2007 Atlantic Basin hurricane season has passed (June 1 is the demarcation for the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season). Several research bodies have recently updated their forecasts and they are all roughly in line with expectations of an above-average hurricane season with from 3 to 5 intense hurricanes this year.

The May/June hurricane season forecasts have shown to be the most reliable of the forecasts, but as was demonstrated in 2006 they sometimes go wrong. All of the forecasters note that their forecasts are highly dependent upon ENSO measurement of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The absence of an El Niño condition is a strong predictor for above average hurricane activity. In 2006, the Pacific slipped from a La Niña condition to an El Niño condition late in the season, which contributed to the low-activity seen last year.

For information on recent hurricane activity, please visit the The Hurricane Insurance Information Center (US).

Earthquake Updates

M6.9 Eastern Honshu, Japan
(June 14, 2008)

A large earthquake occurred in central Japan at 8 AM (Japan local time) on Saturday 14 June. The closest towns are Morioka and Akita (CRESTA zones 2 and 3), about 240 miles north of Tokyo. The USGS website contains a summary of the physical information from this event. The largest aftershock to date occurred approximately 30 minutes after the initial shock about 20 kilometers distant.

M7.9 Eastern Sichuan, China
(May 12, 2008)

A large (currently estimated at M 7.9) earthquake has occurred in eastern Sichuan, China. This earthquake occurred approximately 90 km WNW of the urban area of Chengdu (Sichuan, China). The USGS estimates that more than 6 million people live in areas impacted by Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VIII or higher (severe to extreme ground motions). Current reports note fatality estimates exceeding 10,000. This is a tragic event.

For the full EQECAT report, login in to EQECAT's CatWatch Page.