La Modélisation des Dommages et Pertes
Financières Consécutives aux Inondations -
Natural Hazards damage and financial loss modeling Colloque SHF: risques inondation en Ile de France, Paris, 24-25 mars 2010 –
Michel Voronkoff, EQECAT VP
March 2010
Les aléas naturels engendrent des cumuls de pertes importants car ces derniers couvrent de larges zones
géographiques, un seul évènement pouvant frapper plusieurs pays. La èglementation et les enjeux financiers imposent
aux acteurs de l’assurance et de la finance de quantifier leur exposition à ces risques et en particulier les cas extrêmes.
La modélisation stochastique des pertes apporte aux décideurs les outils dont ils ont besoin pour simuler la complexité des formes de couvertures existantes et les risques de ruine. Les grandes lignes de l’élaboration d’un modèle
stochastique d’inondation sont exposées ci-dessous.
A Guide to Differences between Stochastic Point-Source and Stochastic Finite-Fault Simulations
December 2009 Dr. Ken Campbell co-authored this paper for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. This article was motivated by a question asked by Ken to the rest of the co-authors: Why is it that we cannot approximately reproduce the stochastic simulations of Atkinson and Boore (2006), one of the ground motion models used in the 2008 U.S. national seismic hazard maps as well as in USQUAKE, for eastern North America, which were made with the finite-fault stochastic model EXSIM, by using the point-source stochastic model SMSIM, with the same model parameters? Specifically, it appears that a stress drop of about 250 bars is needed in SMSIM to approximately match the predictions of Atkinson and Boore (2006), which were based on EXSIM with a stress drop of 140 bars, when all other model parameters are set to be equal. These other parameters, describing regional physical constants, attenuation, and path duration, are listed in Atkinson and Boore (2006). This is true even for moderate-magnitude events at large distances, which should behave as point sources. Should not point-source and finite-fault stochastic simulations provide the same predicted ground motions for moderate earthquakes, and at large distances, if the input parameters are the same? These and other questions are answered in this paper.
Understanding of Earthquake Risk Improving Dramatically in U.S. - Major Advances Made In Quake Probabilities, Ground Motion Dr. Ken Campbell and Mr. Bill Keogh, Authors November 2009
The understanding of California earthquake risk by the scientific community, catastrophe modelers and the property and casualty insurance industry has improved dramatically since 2002, especially regarding earthquake probabilities and ground motion. Dr. Ken Campbell and Mr. Bill Keogh discuss the major advances in quake probabilities and the EQECAT process to implement the latest available science into its US Quake model.
