8:00 - 8:30 a.m.

Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 - 9:00 a.m.

9:00 - 10:30 a.m.

Next Generation Attenuation (NGA), Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), and USGS national seismic hazard models: Recent and future developments

The 2008 USGS national seismic hazard model for the U.S. varied significantly from the 2002 version of the model in some areas due to the advancements made during the last half decade in ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and earthquake source characterization. In general, the hazard was smaller, and in some cases significantly smaller, than provided by the 2002 model. The advancement in GMPEs for the western U.S. was possible through a multi-disciplinary study on Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relationships managed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) at the University of California, Berkeley. The advancement in seismic source characterization in California was possible through a statewide study of earthquake sources by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) funded in part by the California Earthquake Authority (CEA), which led to the development of version 2 of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) model. Dr. Yousef Bozorgnia, Executive Director of PEER, will discuss the development of the NGA relationships and future studies being funded by the CEA. Dr. Ned Field, chairman of the WGCEP and Seismologist with the USGS, will discuss the UCERF 2 model and future improvements being funded by the CEA. Dr. Nico Luco will discuss updates to the 2008 USGS national seismic hazard model and planned advancements for the next revision.

10:30 - 11:00 a.m.

11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.

11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.

Latin America - Construction Practice and Structure Vulnerabilities

This session will present an overview of the construction practice in Central and South America, the Codes and Building vulnerabilities.

The Microsoft SQL Server Platform for WORLDCATenterprise™

This session will present the roll out plan for the upcoming release of WORLDCATenterprise™ using Microsoft SQL Server as the underlying database platform. It will explain the benefits that SQL Server provides, what functionality changes, and what remains the same. It will describe the hardware and configurations that will be needed to run WORLDCATenterprise™ in this new environment.

Understanding and Managing Uncertainty in the Catastrophe Modeling Process

An EQECAT presentation focusing on how to manage and mitigate the uncertainty in the catastrophe modeling process; includes a discussion of the uncertainty in the data, hazard and vulnerability components of models.

EuroFlood/UK Storm Surge

Worldwide, about a third of all reported events and a third of the economic losses resulting from natural catastrophes are attributable to floods. In Central Europe the flood events of 2002 that struck the Elbe & Danube resulted in economic losses in excess of 9 Billion Euros (US $ 1.35 Bn) and affected more than 10,000 homes.

Damage from storm surge is a major concern in some areas of Europe. Because of the high concentration of properties and a combined sea surge and tide water level potential increase in excess of 10 meters, London is particularly vulnerable. The estimated cost of a large storm event flooding London is expected to be in the range of 7 to 10 billion UK £ (US$ 15 Bn).

This session will focus on the EQECAT European Flood Model in Germany and Austria and the UK Surge Model with a special focus on London. Both Models are integrated into the WORLDCATenterprise™ 3.13 platform. Key features and validation of the models will be presented.

12:00 - 1:15 p.m.

1:15 - 2:45 p.m.

California and U.S. Quake EQECAT Model Update

This session will present an overview of EQECAT's implementation of the NGA attenuation, UCERF 2 source characterization, and USGS 2008 seismic hazard models in the update of its California and U.S. earthquake loss models, including how EQECAT mitigated the resulting large decrease in hazard and loss that resulted from these models by anticipating some of the changes in its previous releasel. Dr. Kenneth Campbell will discuss the revisions to the seismic hazard module and how these revisions were verified, and will show the impact of these model revisions on the time-independent and time-dependent hazard predicted by the module. Dr. Mahmoud Khater will discuss the impacts of the hazard revision and other revisions to the damage and loss module, and will show the impact of these revisions on the damage predicted by the module.

2:45 - 3:45 p.m.

2:45 - 3:45 p.m.

Japan Quake - Time Dependency

There is a continuing debate in the catastrophe modeling community on how best to model the Earthquake hazard in Japan. EQECAT has adopted the implementation of time dependency into the JapanQuake™ hazard model and this session will explain the technical reasons behind this implementation and the significance to obtained results for this important peak peril.

Dr. Paul Thenhaus, Director, ABS Consulting

Tornado/Hail and Winter Storm

Tornado/hail is among the most devastating natural hazards, accounting for nearly 50 percent of all US catastrophe losses since 1949, while winter storm accounts for 8.5 percent (Property Claims Service). In this session, attendees will learn how EQECAT’s US Tornado/Hail and Winter Storm Models provide reliable comparisons with historical loss observations as well as the models’ ability to quantify the risk exposure of individual properties by utilizing tested stochastic and historical data in a high-resolution, reliable, and easy to use format.

Climate Conditioning in Catastrophe Models

Climate change has an impact on weather-related risk over a range of time scales, from increased volatility of various factors on periods of weeks or months, through long term, potentially irreversible trends. Stakeholders in the management and transfer of natural hazard risk increasingly understand the need to quantify the financial impact of these changes, and risk models are continuing to extend and improve upon their application of science to this issue. Statistical methods to quantify near-term Atlantic hurricane risk have been used for several years, despite debate on their credibility in light of reduced post-2005 losses, and despite regulators’ reluctance to consider them valid. In addition to these statistical methods, numerical models are also being used to supplement the historical record, particularly with respect to the frequency of severe events. Such numerical modeling will increasingly be used to quantify the effect of climate change and cyclicality on weather-related catastrophes, essentially conditioning catastrophe models on current and future climate states. Successful management of weather-related risk, particularly with respect to the catastrophic component of such risk, will require increasingly better tools to quantify and correlate the near term impacts of climate change.

Working with the EQECAT IFC

Much exposure data is circulated around the industry in the form of EDM files. The EQECAT Input File Converter (IFC) generates the files needed for import of this data to WORLDCATenterprise™. Come and learn about the complexities of this conversion process and the rules used for mapping structure types, occupancies and insurance and reinsurance conditions. Armed with this knowledge you will learn how to customize the IFC for those exceptional conditions that so often arise.

3:45 - 4:15 p.m.

4:15 -
5:15 p.m.

California Earthquake Authority's Perspective on California Earthquake

This session will discuss the current activities of the CEA, its risk management strategies and reliance on the reinsurance market, and potential national legislation related to catastrophe insurance.

Dinner and Casino Night - The Cosmopolitan
121 Spear Street, between Mission and Howard, San Francisco, CA

8:00 - 8:30 a.m.

Continental Breakfast

Assessing Tropical Cyclone Risk In A Warming World

Damage from windstorms comes disproportionately from the most extreme events, particularly in the developed world. But to the extent that global climate models produce tropical cyclones at all, they only represent the weakest events and are thus largely irrelevant to assessing tropical cyclone risk. This session will present a new method of down scaling tropical cyclone activity from global climate models and present new projections of changes in tropical cyclone damage resulting from anthropogenic global warming.

10:00 - 11:00 a.m.

EQECAT Database Redesign

EQECAT is engaged in a Re-architecture Initiative to provide our customers with the products they will want to use for their catastrophe modeling in the coming decade. Fundamental to this is the design of the database to be able to represent the business requirements for the capture and retrieval of exposure, insurance and reinsurance data and for access to the results of loss calculations. That is, the database is to be comprehensive, transparent and efficient.

This session explores the work to date on this redesign and provides an opportunity for you to influence the outcome!

11:00 - 11:30 a.m.

11:30 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.

11:30 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.

EQECAT U.S. Offshore Energy Model

This session will cover the principal components of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Offshore Energy Model. This will concentrate on the overall design and operation of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability modules.

Business Benefits of Integrating Catastrophe Modeling

Presentation of the business benefits gained by automating and integrating catastrophe modeling to support Solvency II and Capital Management requirements.

EQECAT Stock Portfolio

EQECAT recently updated the EQESTOCK™ portfolios for the U.S., Japan, and Europe. These portfolios provide statistical estimates of residential, commercial, and industrial in-force property insurance exposures. This industry market portfolio is an essential database to estimate scenario losses from any catastrophic event or to generate probabilistic losses such as EP curves. This session will present the details of the development of EQESTOCK™ for the U.S. and Japan. Portfolio statistics in terms of insured values, market penetration, structure types, and insurance structures will be discussed.

Mr. Jose Miranda, Atmospheric Scientist, EQECAT, Inc.

12:30 - 1:45 p.m.

1:45 - 3:15 p.m.

Three Year Product Roadmap

This session will discuss in detail EQECAT development priorities and product road map from 2010 through 2012. This will include new country/peril models and updates, new features and functionality, architectural enhancements and new data products.

3:15 - 3:45 p.m.

3:45 - 4:45 p.m.

3:45 - 4:45 p.m.

West Pacific Typhoon Model Development

EQECAT is working on a completely updated West Pacific Typhoon model, for release to the market in 2010. The model will cover a wide range of countries in East and Southeast Asia, with a unified stochastic event set covering the entire basin, detailed geographic resolution throughout the region, risk-specific vulnerability functions better tied to the performance of individual buildings than in the previous model, and a number of additional enhancements. Storm surge and flooding due to typhoon rainfall will be incorporated into the model, as these aspects of typhoon occurrence are particularly relevant in Asia. EQECAT is working with several key companies in the region to understand the important drivers of loss and to ensure that the model is appropriately validated during its construction.

Automating and Integrating Risk Assessment with WORLDCATenterprise™ via ICMS/XML

This session will present the benefits and techniques for integrating WORLDCATenterprise™ Cat Risk analysis into your decision support process. It will explain how to utilize XML to interface your systems with ICMS (Integrated Catastrophe Management System) features to automate many of the tasks needed to perform import, analysis, and results extraction.

Wildfire

According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) wildfires have caused the destruction of over 900 structures on average since 1989. The firestorms of 2003 alone destroyed more than 5,000 structures most of which homes and cost the insurance industry over $2 billion. The 1991 Oakland Hills Fire remains the costliest wildfire with a price tag of about $3 billion of insured losses. The estimated 585,000 homes categorized in the highest risk level statewide pose a potential financial loss of over $106 billion.

The EQECAT Wildfire Model analyzes this peril from a probabilistic approach where the Ignition Hazard, the Fire Spread, the Fire Suppression, and the Building Vulnerability modules are integrated to produce a fine resolution of the risk. To develop a reliable model, EQECAT produced a set of 400,000 stochastic wildfire events for the model. This session will discuss this model as well as key parameters needed in a portfolio analysis.

4:45 - 5:15 p.m.

Conclusion